Did the roads to Indy taint the party?

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So the Patriots and Giants find themselves in Super Bowl 46. No doubt this will be another classic match-up between the two storied franchises. There showdown in the Arizona desert for Super Bowl 42 played out to one of the most thrilling finishes in Super Bowl history. The difference though heading into that game was tremendous for both teams. New England was 18-0 coming into the season finale, not 15-3. The Giants similar to this season won multiple playoff games on the road, including ending Brett Favre’s Green Bay Packers career with a loss at Lambeau Field. So what’s so different you might ask? The difference is neither of these teams would be playing again this season, if it were not for some serious choke jobs by the opposition in their respected championship games.

For the Patriots it was all lined up perfectly. A 13-3 regular season record with home field advantage throughout the playoffs. They routed the over-matched Denver Broncos and hosted a Baltimore Ravens team as a seven point favorite. With a three point lead Tom Brady then threw a bomb that ended up being a 4th quarter interception. A turnover the Ravens should have turned into a game winning drive. On third down with plenty of time left, Lee Evans completely dropped a perfect game winning pass from Joe Flacco from 14 yards out. Despite the coverage and strip from a beaten Sterling Moore this ball was dropped! Evans, who had a career day, had both hands on the pigskin and both feet in the end zone. But for some reason, before his left foot touched the ground he failed to squeeze the ball, allowing Moore’s hand to deflect it out of his arms. At the most important moment of his professional career, he chose to relax instead of securing Baltimore’s trip to Indianapolis with just: 22 seconds remaining in the game. A simple contraction of the hands, arms and shoulders and the packed house at Gillette Stadium would have gone home cold, sad, most likely with a football hangover and in disbelief. If that wasn’t enough, their was a back-up plan for the Ravens in Billy Cundiff’s 32 yard field goal attempt. This was a chip shot that Cundiff had made 68 of 71 times in his career. That’s almost 96 percent from 32 yards and in. He couldn’t have missed it worse. It wasn’t even close from the moment it left his foot to the time it took Terrell Suggs to say the words “oh my god”, on the sideline. So no win for Baltimore and not even a chance to have a shot for the victory in overtime. After a three turnover afternoon, New England still advanced to another Super Bowl thanks to Evans and Cundiff personally punching their plane tickets to Indy.

For the Giants it was a tale of two halves of football. They hit the locker room on top of the 49ers at Candlestick Park 10-7. But at the half San Francisco decided to up the pressure on Eli Manning and it worked. Manning spent the majority of the second half on his back being sacked six times for the game. After moving the ball up and down the field at will in the first half, the Giants went no where in the second 30 minutes with the exception of the help they received from 49ers punt returner Kyle Williams. In the third quarter Williams decided not to field a punt and instead of staying clear, remained close enough for the pigskin to hit his knee. The Giants recovered and after a review were given the ball. The turnover, giving New York field position at the 49ers 29 yard line, eventually led to a Giants touchdown pass from Manning to Mario Manningham and a 17-14 lead. Without the bone-head play from Williams, New York scores no touchdown. With the game tied at 17 apiece in overtime, Williams fielded another punt after New York failed again to move into field goal position. This time the ball was stripped out as the Giants pounced on a chance to win the game. Lawrence Tynes soon booted a 31-yard field goal that pushed New York back to the Promised Land. Without the second Williams fumble the Giants might not have even seen the ball again, forget about taking it down the field to score on their own. You have to give New York some credit in forcing the second fumble and recovery it. But if Williams protected the ball with two arms the flight home for the Giants might have ended up being a real long and quit. The bottom line on championship Sunday, both the Patriots and Giants benefited from gag jobs by the Ravens and 49ers. There is no mistake in that.


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Harbaughs get kicked out of Super Bowl

The Patriots/Ravens game was a grinder. The matchup lacked the usual offensive fineness of the Patriots and the signature recklessly-smooth Ravens defense.

The back-to-back fourth quarter interceptions were evidence of what a hard fought game this was by both teams as defense was crucial at every turn. To quote Tom Brady after the game, “I sucked pretty bad today, but our defense saved us.” He ain’t lying!

Both teams were evenly matched in many respects (we’ll get to that in a moment), so what was it that gave the Patriots the slight edge? Three words: BIG. VINCE. WILFORK.The patriots 325-pound nose tackle set the tone from the get-go. During Baltimore’s third possession of the game (a third consecutive three-and-out), Wilfork tackled Ricky Williams for a five yard loss on first down and repeated the performance two plays later viciously sacking Joe Flacco for a five yard loss, forcing another Ravens punt. One might think the big guy had worn himself out early, but au contraire! Wilfork’s presence in the middle was huge, and felt consistently throughout the game, which he capped off with a massive performance late in the fourth quarter. Wilfork was credited with tackles on three of the Ravens seven plays in their second to last possession of the game, including a stop that left Ray Rice hobbling and sidelined for two plays before welcoming him back with a tackle on a five yard run immediately followed by dropping Rice for a loss of three yards. At the end of the day, Wilfork was directly responsible for the loss of 13 yards for the Ravens between his six tackles, one sack, and a quarterback hit. The 21st over all draft pick in 2004, Wilfork is one of the few players on the current Patriots roster left over from the Super Bowl-winning teams of the early 2000’s. The former Hurricane won Super Bowl XXXIX with New England as a rookie and was a member of the 2007 team that lost to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Wilfork has long since been a leader of not only the Patriots defense, but the team as a whole. He leads by example on and off the field and is seemingly a friend to all in the Patriots locker room. He has remained the constant in a unit full of variables.

The Patriots and Ravens both played a balanced, mirror-image game, each passing the ball 36 times and running it 31 times. It can’t get much more even than that. The Ravens beat out the Patriots in total yards, time of possession and interceptions (2) while the New England defense got to the quarterback more often (three sacks and seven hits on Flacco and five tackles for a loss versus one sack and three hits on Brady, and two tackles for loss) than the Ravens. Neither offense broke 300 yards passing (both Brady and Flacco went 22-36) and the Ravens rushed for 116 yards while the Pats couldn’t crack triple digits, gaining 96 yards on the ground. The Patriots defense suffered all kinds of injuries and personnel changes throughout the regular season contributing to their ranking of 31st in the league. Yikes. But this defensive unit sure has looked good in the post season, even with Kyle Arrington missing significant time in today’s game with an eye injury. The Patriots have had the most explosive offense in the league all season long and finally the defense is coming around and holding its own. As Bart Scott would say, I CANTWAIT to see what Belichick & Co. will show us in the Super Bowl.

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Jackie Pepper
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Time to call the flip - Our Championship Day Predictions

I'm torn. The Patriots are good for football. I think they have become what the Dallas Cowboys used to be; America's Team. Tom Brady and Bill Belichick's hoodie make for great drama and top-notch TV ratings. Behind Tom Terrific, the Pats also have the second most entertaining offensive player in the league in tight end Rob Gronkowski who makes experts marvel and fans drop their jaws to the floor with every catch. Oh ya, then there's Aaron Hernandez, tight end/running back extraordinaire. On the other side of the AFC you have the Ravens with one of the league's top defenses. Probable Ravens lifers Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs have yet to win a ring, each missing out on Baltimore's championship year by two and three seasons respectively. One of the league's best rushers and nicest guys, Ray Rice deserves to play in a Super Bowl game. Then there's the other Ray. Ray Lewis, the medicine man-like spiritual leader of the team who has waited so long for another shot at a title.

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In a land far, far away from Foxboro, MA, the 49ers and Giants will duke it out in San Francisco for a chance to represent the NFC in the big game. What's not to love about the comeback-kid 49ers? The young and intense rookie head coach finally gets a talented defense to play to its potential and turns a draft bust into a respectable, winning quarterback after six seasons of misery. The Niners would be headed to their first Super Bowl in 17 years. In the New York Giants, you have a team led by a guy who has been bullied and picked on by pundits as he was overshadowed by his superstar older brother, until now. Eli Manning has finally proved that he is on the doorstep of being an elite quarterback and could very well finish his career with more Super Bowl wins than his brother Peyton. Who ever would have imagined that? Eli and his receivers aren't even the talk of the town as the Giants defense has been stellar, providing what could be an epic duel of the defenses at Candlestick.

Each matchup on Sunday looks fantastic on paper, and every potential Super Bowl pairing is likely to yield a fantastically exciting contest.

I'll pick the Patriots with some degree of conviction, and the Giants, but barely. Here's why:

Ravens at Patriots

I trust the Patriots offense at home versus anybody. Bring in the '85 bears, put them on the field against this Pats offense at Gillette and I'm taking New England. I know the Pats lost a game at home to the Giants during the regular season, and the picture of Ray Rice running wild on them in the 2009 playoffs is fresh in my mind, playing like an scratchy home movie on a projector as the lights flash and the film pops. But I still can't bet against the Pats at home. Moreover, the pundits going the other way seem to always refer back to the last time these two locked horns in the playoffs where the Ravens opened up the whole can of whippin on the Pats but there are several not so subtle differences between then and now. Firstly, an offense that was predicated around Wes Welker needed to be completely retooled as he went down with an injury in the meaningless last game of the season. Other than that, the Pats have never lost to the Ravens. Secondly, the 11’ club is so vastly different even with Tom Terrific at quarterback, with the two-headed tight end monster that no zone defense has been able to come close to handling, and rest assured the Ravens will be forced to play zone to protect the fact that their linebackers, despite having Hall Of Fame names, have lost more than just a step.

This game is Brady or Bust for the Patriots. This season the Pats are 8-1 at home, averaging a healthy 30.7 points per game… that's an AVERAGE. The Pats shoddy defense (I say their worst in 10 years, as the current D is ranked 31st in the league) is giving up 19.2 points per game at home. By comparison, the Ravens are 4-4 on the road, scoring 19.9 points per game and the defense is allowing 18.4 points per game. Obviously if the law of averages plays out Sunday, it's a no-brainer Pats win.

If Terrell Suggs can get to Brady and the Ravens sack him four or five times, that will be huge. If Ed Reed - who was injured in the final minutes of last week's game in Houston - can get his sticky fingers on a few footballs, watch out Boston! If the Baltimore defense is playing at that level Sunday, they have a chance. Last week I picked the Saints over the 49ers because I figured at the end of the day, the league's best offense would beat the league's best defense. Clearly, I was wrong, which is why I won't completely count the Ravens out.

Last week, only three of the Ravens 20 points scored were generated solely by the offense as the other 17 points came on possessions as a result of Texans turnovers. Points were tough to come by in that contest, but Joe Flacco and Ray Rice should have an easier time against a New England defense that is far less intimidating than that of the Texans. It's still crazy to me that the Pats defense is ranked so poorly with guys like Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, Brandon Spikes, Patrick Chung and Kyle Arrington. Injuries have hurt the defense, but I think these guys will be fired up and playing with a chip on their shoulder come Sunday.

Should the Ravens defense find a way to grind Gronkowski, Hernandez will pop up instead. Should the Ravens D somehow hush Hernandez, Wes Welker will be hot on the screen game. Should the Ravens D weaken Welker, Deion Branch will run the dink and dunk. And should the Ravens D bother Branch, Robbie McCullough from Southie will jump out of the stands, take the field and find a way to catch a pass from Brady.



Giants at 49ers

I'm picking the Giants because I feel like the stars are aligning for a Giants/Patriots Super Bowl rematch. I wrote an article about it last week that provides a few legitimate reasons for why it's bound to happen, citing some strange similarities between the Giants 2007 season and this year.

I won't place too much importance on the fact that the 49ers already beat the Giants at home because that was all the way back in week 10, which at this point, was a football lifetime ago. The Giants were a different team back then, period.

As for the playoffs, I went with the Saints last week; fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Logic tells me the 49ers should win this game. I would love for them to win it. I think the rise of he 49ers from the depths of the NFL underworld would be one of the best story lines the league has seen in a long time. But sometimes magic just happens… How can one explain the success of Tim Tebow and the Broncos despite having a deplete offense run by a quarterback who Brian Urlacher referred to as a running back? Sometimes magic just happens, which is exactly what I think we'll see Sunday as I predict the Giants will beat the hot-like-fire 49ers in what will be a classic game. Should the Niners win, shame on me!

Last week I wrote that the Saints vs. 49ers had the potential to be the best game of the playoffs, and as it turns out, I was right. I think we could see a similar product this week between two well-balanced teams. Heading into last week's game, I expressed little faith in the 49ers offense, but I learned my lesson and I'm calling them legit. I still can't get over the last 5 minutes of that game… wow.

Meanwhile the Giants threw the book at the defending champion Packers in impressive fashion as the G-Men have outscored opponents 61-22 in the playoffs while the defense has racked up six sacks (and 17 sacks in their last four games), two fumbles and one interception. Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Jason Pierre-Paul… these guys have everything working for them and I expect Sunday to be no different.

But damn, the 49ers defense was even better than New York's throughout the season! Until last week's wild one against the Saints, San Francisco gave up only 10.9 points per game at home, the team didn't allow a rushing touchdown until week 14 and until Marshawn Lynch got 'em in week 16, the Niners had not allowed a single rusher to gain 100 or more yards in one game. Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Aldon Smith (the rookie has 14 sacks this season), Carlos Rogers, Dashon Goldson and the rest of the 49ers defense run like a well-oiled machine where rarely does a guy take a play off. The unit plays with the intensity of its head coach Jim Harbaugh, which says a lot.

I won't count on the Giants running game to be very helpful on Sunday, but I am counting on Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham to produce. I think Eli is good for two interceptions Sunday, seeing as he has 16 picks this season and the 49ers defense has picked off opponents 25 times.

Don't let the Giants' win over the Packers fool you; I don't expect this to be a high scoring game for either team. Yes, the Giants scored 37 last week against one of the league's worst defenses. In the final five minutes of last week's game, neither the 49ers or Saints played a lick of defense, accounting for the higher-than-anticipated score, but the Saints did turn the ball over FIVE times in the game, thanks in large part to an outstanding defensive performance by San Fran.

Although Alex Smith and Vernon Davis played wonderfully against the Saints, those two alone accounted for so much of the offensive production (Frank Gore followed with 89 yards rushing and 38 yards receiving ) with makes me nervous. If the Giants defense plays Davis tough enough to make him a near-non factor, who is going to step up and do the damage through the air? Michael Crabtree? Tedd Ginn? Davis is the Niners only consistent threat in the passing game, so that leaves Gore and Kendall Hunter to take over on the ground. I can't envision those guys getting past this Giants defense.

How The Divisional Round Proved We're Destined For A Patriots vs Giants Super Bowl Rematch

Ten games into the NFL season, I developed a theory. The Packers were undefeated at 9-0 and the Patriots were 6-3, coming off a big win over the rival New York Jets. Despite losses to the Bills, Steelers and Giants, I wasn't really worried about New England as the defense was going through some changes and after all, they got beat by the Browns last season for one of only two losses. I know that most good teams will lose a few regular season games. It's not the end of the world.

Anyway, at that point, ten weeks in, I was certain the Packers and Patriots would meet in Super Bowl XLVI (that's 46, for those who aren't well-versed when it comes to roman numerals, myself included). In my mind, I had the scenario playing out as a Shakespearian drama; The Packers would enter the Super Bowl unbeaten and the Patriots would dash Green Bay's dreams of achieving a true ultimate undefeated season, a la the 2007 New York Giants. In the unlikeliest of role reversals, New England would get to experience the agony of defeat, followed by the joy of victory, somewhat avenging the '07 loss.

As you know by now, the freakin' Kansas City Chiefs, of all teams, went and ruined my soon-to-be-a-disney-movie screenplay, handing the Packers their first loss of the season in week 15. With my original plan foiled, I moved on to the next best thing which is a Patriots vs. Giants rematch in Super Bowl XLVI.

Barring a literal divine intervention, I predicted the Patriots would beat the Broncos badly…that happened. While I picked Green Bay to beat the Giants in the NFC, I wrote that this game had the highest probability of an upset and I pointed out a few reasons why I thought the Giants could pull it off.

I think every athlete and fan alike has some form of superstition in relation to sports. I happen to be a believer in patterns. For example, lets say the NBA is in the conference finals. Both higher seeds are 2-0, and in the West, the higher seed wins game three on the road for a 3-0 lead. Heading into the third game of the Eastern Conference Finals, I would assume the higher seed will also win, taking a 3-0 advantage. I just have this weird feeling about patterns, equality and mirroring when it comes to sports. I don't get that feeling with every game, but it's just my own little quirk.

Heading into the Giants vs. Packers playoff game, I noticed some examples of this year's Giants team mirroring the '07 team.

In week 17 of the '07 season, a struggling Giants team fell just short of handing the then-undefeated Patriots a colossal upset as New England edged out New York by a final score of 38-35 at the Meadowlands. Whatever happened that night got the G-Men hot and bothered as they ripped through the playoffs, beating the Bucs in the wild card game and downing the cowboys in Dallas before landing at Lambeau Field to take on Brett Favre and the Packers in the NFC Championship game. If you recall, head coach Tom Coughlin’s face was a blistery red and it looked like the guy had hypothermia, but alas, he survived, as did the Giants in overtime. Brett Favre’s interception in the extra period would be the last pass he ever threw in a Packers uniform. The Giants went on to beat the Pats in one of the greatest Super Bowl finishes of all time.

Fast forward to this season where the Packers beat the Giants in Jersey in week 13. The final score? Cue the eerie music…. Packers 38 Giants 35. Recognize that??? Yep, same score as the Week 17 loss to New England in the '07 Super Bowl season. In 07, the Giants beat a team in the Super Bowl that had beat them six weeks before in the regular season by a score of 38-35. Just like they did with the Pats back then, the Giants picked off the Packers in the post season five weeks after suffering a 38-35 regular season loss. See where I'm going with this? It's like the Bizarro-Jerry episode of Seinfeld. Things are the same, yet different, but still the same. Hmmmm…..

How bout Hakeem Knicks with that David Tyree-like miracle catch as he secured the football using his helmet for a touchdown after Manning's hail mary pass to end the first half, giving the Giants the lead and a ton of confidence heading into the Lambeau locker room? It was a copycat of the iconic Tyree catch, just in a different place and time yet with a striking similarity in significance. Yes, the Tryee catch set up the game winning touchdown in '07 while the Nicks catch was a touchdown and at the end of a half, but in my eyes, both plays sucked the life out of the opposition and led to a Giants victory.

Yes, the Patriots defense isn't close to what it used to be back in the early part of last decade, but the team has won nine straight games, having finally got the first-round-playoff-loss monkey off its back. As much as I respect the the Ravens (I'll never forget how they humiliated the Patriots at Gillette Stadium in the playoffs two seasons ago), New England's offense is on fire and the defense has held opponents to 27 points or less over the current win streak. I don't see the Ravens overcoming the Pats in New England, so I'm pretty positive Belichick, Brady and company will represent the AFC in the Big Game.

That leaves the 49ers and Giants. I would pick San Francisco in the NFC title game if it didn't totally destroy my Pats/Giants rematch theory. Just like they were in '07, the Giants are hot. Yes, it took them a while to warm up against the Packers, but once they got the engine running, that was it! O-V-E-R. New York's defense managed to hold the NFL's best offense to 20 points and watched the Packers turn the ball over four times. They weren't perfect, but I think the Giants D is feeling pretty confident right now after dismantling Aaron Rodgers and the Discount Double Check at Lambeau.

Then there is Eli Manning. He's like that kid growing up who has a super cool older brother, but gets picked on mercilessly by the other kids in junior high, periodically getting dunked in the toilet for a swirly during lunch time. I used to be one of those bullies, making fun of him privately, until I watched Eli throughout that 2007 season when I worked for NFL Network. The man is a damn good quarterback, a nice guy, and he's a champion. Period.

His performance against the Packers was full of extremes. Manning either had all day to throw the ball, or he was quickly getting drilled, taking several tough hits. Like in '07, his guys came through when it counted. The O-line, while not perfect, got the job done as did Cruz, Nicks, Manningham, and Bradshaw. Who needs Burress and Toomer, right?

The Giants beat the Packers in the '07 NFC Championship game after losing to them in the regular season. This season, the Giants lost to the 49ers in the regular season and now get a second shot at them in the NFC title game. Coincidence? At this point, I think not.

For better or worse, I'm a believer in history repeating itself and that's exactly what appears to be happening in the NFL. My crystal ball shows the Patriots and Giants, together again, this time in Indianapolis, vying for the Lombardi Trophy and a chance to give us one of the best storylines in NFL history.

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Jackie Pepper